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Market Analysis and Theory

No one knows what the market will do from one day to the next, but there are those who have an idea of what we might expect.
  
The following articles feature market forecasts, observations, and theories.

  • Why Probability of Success or Touching Does Not Work
    Probability of Success and Probability of Touching studies can both be valuable tools, but it is important to recognize that they have significant limitations and that they cannot be relied upon to accurately quantify the true probability of a trade returning a profit or, even more imporatntly, avoiding a crippling loss.
  • Robert Prechter Explains The Fed, Part I
    The ongoing financial crisis has made the central bank's decisions -- interest rates, quantitative easing (QE2), monetary stimulus, etc. -- a permanent fixture on six-o'clock news. Yet many of us don't truly understand the role of the Federal Reserve. For answers, let's turn to someone who has spent a considerable amount of time studying the Fed and its functions: EWI president Robert Prechter. Today we begin a 3-part series that we believe will help you understand the Fed as well as he does. (Excerpted from Prechter's Conquer the Crash and the free Club EWI report, "Understanding the Federal Reserve System.") Here is Part I.
  • Robert Prechter Explains The Fed, Part II
    The ongoing financial crisis has made the central bank's decisions -- interest rates, quantitative easing (QE2), monetary stimulus, etc. -- a permanent fixture on six-o'clock news. Yet many of us don't truly understand the role of the Federal Reserve. For answers, let's turn to someone who has spent a considerable amount of time studying the Fed and its functions: EWI president Robert Prechter. Today we begin a 3-part series that we believe will help you understand the Fed as well as he does. (Excerpted from Prechter's Conquer the Crash and the free Club EWI report, "Understanding the Federal Reserve System.") Here is Part I.
  • Robert Prechter Explains The Fed, Part III
    The ongoing financial crisis has made the central bank's decisions -- interest rates, quantitative easing (QE2), monetary stimulus, etc. -- a permanent fixture on six-o'clock news. Yet many of us don't truly understand the role of the Federal Reserve. For answers, let's turn to someone who has spent a considerable amount of time studying the Fed and its functions: EWI president Robert Prechter. Today we begin a 3-part series that we believe will help you understand the Fed as well as he does. (Excerpted from Prechter's Conquer the Crash and the free Club EWI report, "Understanding the Federal Reserve System.") Here is Part I.
  • Efficient Market Hypothesis: R.I.P.
    Of all the belief systems of Wall Street, few can claim the devoted following of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, the idea that stock prices adhere to the same laws of supply-and-demand that govern retail products. Once coined the theoretical "Parthenon" of economics, this notion has consistently endured the test of time ----- until now. Academics and advisors across the globe are currently exposing crack after crack in the "Efficient" model so deep as to bring the entire theory crashing to the ground.
  • Understanding Technical Analysis
    Learn the fundamentals of technical analysis in a free 7-part video training course hosted by an experienced professional trader.

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